Ultra-Processed Furore & Raw Milk Craze Hike Dairy Sales, But Plant-Based Alternatives Are Here to Stay

Consumption of non-dairy alternatives witnessed a dip at the start of the year, while conventional products like whole milk enjoyed growing sales.

Whether it’s the US or Europe, dairy seems to be having a renaissance, and that too at the expense of better-for-the-planet alternatives like oat, almond or soy milk.

In the UK, while conventional dairy sales increased by 6% in January, plant-based analogues only saw a 1% hike – and the latter category suffered with volume declines in nearly all subgroups. Vegan cheese was particularly poor-performing, with retail spending down by 26% and volumes falling by 31%, according to NielsenIQ data cited by the state-backed Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB).

Across Europe, less than one in five people (18%) avoid animal products. And moving forward, only a quarter would like to phase out meat and dairy, while 12% would like to increase their consumption of these products.

Meanwhile in the US, sales of dairy milk grew by 2% in 2024, with whole milk intake up by 3%. In contrast, the country saw a 6% decline in plant-based milk consumption.

So why is this happening? And does this spell disaster for plant-based dairy?

Why is everyone drinking cow’s milk again?

The AHDB ascribed the decline of plant-based milk to the “declining engagement in Veganuary” – its research with YouGov showed that only 6% of the British population participated in the month-long challenge this year, and nearly a third of them didn’t complete it. Of those who did, two in five said they weren’t planning to continue being vegan post-January.

One of the biggest reasons ascribed to the shift in dairy trends is ultra-processing. The future of ultra-processed foods (UPFs) has unfairly attacked plant-based meat and dairy alternatives, as experts warn of separating the amount of processing from a product’s actual nutritional qualities.

Since many plant-based milk alternatives are considered processed – thanks to the addition of emulsifiers, oils, sweeteners, or stabilisers – they often come under fire in the UPF debate. Research firm Mintel has suggested that Brits have a “strong” perception that many alt-dairy products are “highly processed”.

Across the Atlantic, “health-conscious and science-sceptical Americans” are avoiding UPFs too – as the New York Times puts it – with the backlash fuelled by new health secretary Robert F Kennedy Jr. Meanwhile, the rise of raw milk has compounded this shift, driven by an 18% hike in sales in 2024. This comes despite warnings from a host of government agencies – including the FDA, the USDA, and the CDC – against the health risks it poses, especially avian flu, salmonella, and E. coli.

The raw milk craze has been exacerbated by RFK Jr and a suite of ‘wellness’ influencers on social media, who have incorrectly purported claims that raw milk is safer than pasteurised milk, and embarked on cleanses from plant-based milk by consuming nothing but raw milk for a week (or even more).

For many consumers, plant-based milk just doesn’t help them score their macros, despite many products – including soy and pea milks – containing equivalent amounts of protein.

Finally – and perhaps most pertinently – non-dairy products are cost-prohibitive at a time when inflation is biting people harder than ever. Cow’s milk prices are already approaching the record they set in 2022 in the US, while plant-based alternatives remain twice as expensive. At a time when Americans are spending 15% more than they were for the same goods in 2022, this is likely driving the shift away from vegan products, which don’t benefit from government subsidies the same way dairy does.

Plant-based milk isn’t going anywhere

Despite all this, plant-based milk still feels like it’s here to stay. For one, the sales data shows they’re not suffering everywhere. In the UK, supermarket sales of these products were up by 0.9% – slower than whole milk (1.2%), but in contrast with declines in semi-skimmed (2.4%) and skimmed milk (0.7%), according to Kantar data cited by the Guardian.

In the US, too, sales for shelf-stable coconut milk, soy milk, and multi-ingredient blends increased by 28%, 0.7% and 10%, respectively, as per SPINS and MULO data reported by FoodNavigator. In 2023, non-dairy alternatives made up 41% of all milk sales in the natural channel, and 15% overall.

Plant-based milk also accounts for 41% of all vegan sales in Europe’s biggest markets, reaching €2.2B in 2023. In Germany, Spain, and the UK, more than 35% of households buy these products. And stateside, 44% of homes purchased them that year, and they liked them so much, eight in 10 came back for more.

Additionally, one in five Americans who purchase vegan alternatives put cow’s milk in their shopping carts, a figure that rises to 23% for yoghurt and 30% for cheese. It’s a sign of their popularity – it’s not just vegans who drink dairy-free milk.

This is because many prefer their taste over dairy, while many others are lactose-intolerant. This is why we’re seeing companies like Starbucks and Dunkin’ facing lawsuits for charging extra for non-dairy milk. These efforts have been successful – both companies have dropped the surcharge, alongside a host of other coffee chains. If that isn’t a marker of plant-based milk’s potential, we’re not sure what is.

Back in Europe, many coffee chains already don’t charge extra for plant-based milk (yes, Starbucks included), and now, retailers are joining in the act, making their own-label non-dairy products the same price or cheaper than cow-derived ones.

To keep up with shifting consumer preferences anyway, some brands are coming up with innovations that speak to their demands – this is key, given that a third of Americans still haven’t found a non-dairy product that meets all of their needs.

Sproud and Ripple Foods are positioning pea milk as the protein-packed alternative of the moment, while Bam, Niúke Foods and Whole Moon are highlighting their amino acid and “complete protein” credentials. Minor Figures has just unveiled a new muscle-supporting Hyper Oat milk, while PKN has launched a Zero-edition pecan milk to cater to consumers looking for clean-label options.

The plant-based category has always been ripe for innovation, and it has made its name by disrupting established, resource-intensive industries. A little raw milk is unlikely to stop that.