Americans Using GLP-1 Drugs Are Spending Less on Groceries & UPFs

US households with at least one user of GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic are spending 6-9% less on groceries, with the sharpest declines seen in ultra-processed categories.

For Ozempic users, chips, baked goods, calories, and grocery bills are all on the decline, according to a new study by Cornell University’s SC Johnson College of Business.

Using data from Numerator, the research has found that American households with at least one user of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs typically spend 5.5% less in supermarkets within six months of taking the medications, with high-income households seeing a sharper 9% decrease.

These reductions are primarily driven by a shift away from ultra-processed foods (UPFs) like savoury snacks, baked goods, cheese, cookies and soft drinks. UPFs have become central to Americans’ food decisions – they make up 73% of the national food supply and contribute to 60% of calorie consumption.

While there were modest increases in spending on fresh produce and yoghurts, grocery baskets generally become healthier through the removal of calorie-dense products, rather than the addition of fruits and vegetables.

And while the impact on grocery bills softens after the first six months, spending trends remain “negative and statistically significant”, according to the researchers.

“Our findings highlight the potential for GLP-1 medications to significantly reshape consumer food demand, a trend with increasingly important implications for the food industry as adoption continues to grow,” the report suggests.

What Ozempic users are spending less on

The researchers analysed shopping data from 2,623 households with at least one GLP-1 drug user, accounting for 11.6% of the total tracked households.

While the average monthly spend on groceries totals $630, adoption of GLP-1 medications leads to a reduction of $416 annually on these purchases. But there is a big discrepancy between high-earners and lower-income households.

Those earning over $125,000 a year reduce their supermarket spending by $690 every year after starting on a weight-loss drug, an 8.6% decrease. This is more than double the reduction seen by households earning less than $125,000 annually (a 4.2% fall to $270).

The analysis identified 40 product categories with the highest expenditures, and found that snacking – both savoury and sweet products – bears the brunt of the shift, with expenditure reducing between 6.7-11%. “GLP-1 users reduce spending on high-calorie, high-sugar, or high-fat items,” the study reads. “Spending on products such as chips, sweet bakery, sides, and cookies show some of the largest reductions.”

It adds: “A closer examination across grocery categories reveals that the impact of GLP-1 use extends beyond just calorie-dense products, with most categories experiencing declines.”

Increased spending is observed only for yoghurt and fresh produce (and only among those who take GLP-1 for weight loss, not diabetes). Meat snacks and nutrition bars were the only other categories with even a minor increase in spending – this underscores that climate-friendly foods aren’t too much of a consideration for these consumers.

At the same time, GLP-1 users are also spending less on restaurants, with breakfast bills declining by 4% and dinner by 6%.

Food companies must adapt to GLP-1

GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic, Wegovy and Mounjaro have become massively popular in the US – one in eight adults have now tried using these medications. They work by replicating incretin, a natural hormone found in our bodies that boosts the GLP-1 hormone, which in turn regulates blood sugar, fulfils the appetite, and manages weight.

Analysts say that the number of users could rise to anywhere between 10 to 70 million by 2028, boosting America’s GDP by 1%. By the end of the decade, GLP-1 drugs are expected to command a $105B market.

The study results chime with research by Morgan Stanley from last year, which found that 31% of Americans were spending less on groceries after taking GLP-1 medications (and 23% were shelling out more). There was a bigger difference when it came to eating out, with 63% of respondents spending less on restaurants, and only 9% forking out more.

Another poll showed nearly a third of weight-loss drug users were eating fewer carbs and snacks than before, and spending 4% less on groceries overall.

“Companies that rely heavily on calorie-dense, processed, or indulgent foods are likely to face declining demand and need to reassess their product portfolios to remain competitive,” the Cornell study states. Giants like Walmart and Hershey have already admitted that GLP-1 drugs have hit their bottom lines.

It notes that the effects of these drugs will likely prompt “targeted adjustments” in product formulations, packaging, and portion sizes. “Consumers on GLP-1 medications are expected to gravitate toward smaller portions and products emphasising health and convenience, such as single-serving or portion-controlled options for nutrient-dense items like fresh produce, yoghurt, and nutrition bars,” it adds.

Big Food is already making moves to compete in the Ozempic era. Nestlé has a new brand dedicated to GLP-1 users, Coca-Cola and PepsiCo are planning prebiotic launches, and Birds Eye and Slim Jim owner Conagra Brands is introducing ‘GLP-1 friendly’ labels on packaging for some of its Healthy Choice ready meals.