Will the GLP-1 Boom Reduce Food Waste? Latest ReFED Report Lists 2025 Trends

Ozempic, inflation and the Trump presidency will likely dictate how the US deals with food waste in 2025, according to ReFED, a leading non-profit.

Last year was a big year for food waste policy in the US. The Biden White House introduced the first-ever strategy to fight food waste, published in collaboration with the USDA, the Food and Drug Administration and the Environmental Protection Agency, three agencies that renewed a recurring collaborative agreement to keep food from ending up in the bin and landfills.

Retailers, meanwhile, made the most significant progress ever reported by cutting food waste by a quarter between 2019 and 2022. And the number of businesses signed up to the US Food Loss and Waste 2030 Champions pledge grew to 50, with giants like Danone, Hilton, Starbucks, Kroger, Walmart, Unilever and Tyson Foods replicating the government’s commitment to half food waste by 2030.

These efforts have sparked what research non-profit ReFED calls a “food waste moment” in the US, where a range of external factors come together to produce opportunities for real progress in food waste reduction.

This is crucial when you consider that 38% of all food goes to waste, which is worth $473B, according to research organisation ReFED. It is the single largest volume of material sent to landfills and incinerators, and accounts for 58% of methane emissions from solid municipal waste landfills.

Will this food waste moment – and momentum – continue in 2025? ReFED is confident about further progress, laying out the key trends we could see in the coming months.

GLP-1: a boon or bane for food waste?

Ozempic was picked as the Name of the Year by the American Name Society in 2024, a reflection of the weight-loss drug’s explosive popularity in the US. With companions like Wegovy, Mounjaro and Zepbound, GLP-1 medications have now been used by one in eight Americans.

It has shaken the food system to its core. Large producers – from Nestlè to Coca-Cola – are responding with products that meet the needs of GLP-1 users (or seekers), retailers and restaurants are losing sales, and fibre-forward startups are seizing the moment.

But Ozempic and the like are also affecting how much food is wasted. A 2024 Ohio State University study found that one in four GLP-1 users wasted more food since taking the drugs, thanks in large part to nausea from the injectables.

Interestingly, the effects of these weight-loss drugs on food waste withered with time – people who had been taking the medications for over a year were less likely to throw away food than those who had been on them for less than 90 days. As they shift to eating more vegetables on their shrunk appetites, the likelihood of them wasting food diminishes.

With the number of users forecast to rise to anywhere between 10 to 70 million by 2028, GLP-1 drugs are here to stay. They are set to boost America’s GDP by 1% by that year, and command a $105B market by the end of the decade.

“Their influence will only continue to grow,” said ReFED, which will publish analysis on the links between GLP-1 drugs and food waste this year.

Inflation and the Trump administration could prove highly influential

According to ReFED, the average family of four spends more than $3,000 a year on food that ends up in the bin. At the same time, GLP-1 users are spending up to 9% less on groceries than they were before taking the medications.

But 13.5% of households are food insecure in the US, with the amount of food lost or wasted potentially able to feed around 46 million Americans – or more than the states of New York and Florida, combined.

Inflation has kept prices sky-high – 75% of Americans are very concerned about the cost of food – and informed how people voted in this election. “There’s a real opportunity for the new administration and other policymakers to help consumers make the connection between cost and food waste, and implement solutions that maximise the value of the food they’re already purchasing,” suggests ReFED.

Speaking of which, after the gains in 2024, this year could be “the most consequential yet for food waste policy”. It holds a lot of potential – from the Farm Bill and action on date label legislation to organic waste bans – and some trepidation. Whether Donald Trump retains Biden’s national strategy on the matter remains to be seen, but ReFED says trends from his first term indicate a willingness to fight food waste.

Another source of uncertainty is investment. A large part of funding to tackle food waste has come from venture capital activity in recent years, but this sector has been in derisking mode. “Expectations for the new year provide a mixed bag, since lower interest rates may manifest in 2025 but are moderated by overall climate funding seeing a near-term decline and the potential for tariffs,” notes ReFED. “We believe food waste funding will likely be headed for a similar (if not flat) year compared to 2024.”

At the same time, whenever money does flow, the focus will likely be on supply chain tech development – think demand planning software and shelf-life extension. And with tariffs in sharp focus, food systems may be localised in the medium or long term, making investors focus on regional food opportunities.

The other major trend identified by ReFED is the enhancement of datasets, which would provide a more detailed view of food waste hotspots. 2025 is also the first time EU companies must start reporting under the EU’s Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive, which include climate impacts that will encompass food waste.

“While non-EU-based companies don’t need to report until 2028, it still sets the stage to get a better picture of food waste generation at multinational companies,” states the non-profit.